A Hong Kong trader who successfully forecast the bitcoin price’s dramatic year-end ascent believes that the flagship cryptocurrency’s rally is far from over.
Dave Chapman, managing director of cryptocurrency trading firm Octagon Strategy, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that many analysts scoffed at him when he predicted the bitcoin price would more than double in the fourth quarter and reach $10,000 before the end of the year.
“I was quoted back in August when bitcoin was trading at around $4,000 that we would have a five figure headline by the end of this year,” he said. “I think a lot of people thought I was crazy, a lot of people scoffed at me, but that’s OK.”
However, despite condescending looks from bitcoin bears, the bitcoin price has met — and exceeded — Chapman’s prediction. At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading at $16,615, fresh off a 20 percent rally fueled by the launch of CBOE’s regulated bitcoin futures contracts.
The bears chalk this movement up to a speculative frenzy, and Chapman concedes that he is a bit concerned about the market’s current “heat”. However, he denies that bitcoin’s value is derived purely from speculation.
“Bitcoin allows the immediate transfer of value from one individual in the world to any other individual in the world, and it does that without a middle man. That’s its value,” he said. “If you look at bitcoin and its impact on finance, it’s really not that crazy to think that bitcoin could be an extremely huge disruptor to finance as we know it today.”
Chapman said that the launch of bitcoin derivatives is a sign that cryptocurrency is “growing up,” and he added that he would not be surprised if the bitcoin price reaches $100,000 before the end of 2018. Nevertheless, he cautioned that becoming too fixated on cryptocurrency prices will cause people to lose sight of the truly revolutionary aspects of the technology.
“The price to me is probably the most uninteresting component about bitcoin. I’m more excited in the applications and more excited about what this means for people who don’t have access to financial inclusion,” Chapman concluded. “If we focus on the price, we’re losing track of the big picture.”